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Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:24 pm
by ShadowFlare
Found it!

If either Lavarinth or Tipereth were Dark Templar, both of them had to have been Dark Templar, as mentioned in my deductions above.

However...  Page 4, Tipereth suggests lynching Lavarinth:
tipereth wrote: In all seriousness, Lav is inherently a bad guy. Judging by the last game (which I wasn't a part of hahaha) even if he's on our side it would be an advantage to having him dead.

This breaks scenario 2 above, since it would mean a fellow Dark Templar accusing one of his own when no one had voted yet.  Unless anyone can find and quote something that also breaks scenario 1, scenario 1 must be true, and mAc Chaos and Aekenon are the Dark Templar.

If they attempt to betray each other at this point to try to get us to split our votes, don't be fooled by them.  It is too late for any betrayal to be considered into these scenarios, unless it had already happened.  We must focus our votes on just one of them.  Unless one of them votes for the other (in BOLD), we cannot lynch both of them on this day.  I suggest mAc Chaos first, already detected as a Dark Templar by Lavarinth.





The two scenarios again, for reference, because of the new page:
ShadowFlare wrote: After careful consideration, I believe we only lynched one Dark Templar and we lynched one innocent Protoss.

If Thalraxal was indeed a Dark Templar, then under this scenario:
  • Lavarinth is probably not a Dark Templar, and maybe an Observer as he claims to be, since Thalraxal would not have been lynched without his vote (was he even the first to vote for him as well?).
  • I am not a Dark Templar since Lavarinth is an Observer and said so.
  • Taer probably is not a Dark Templar, since he had the deciding vote to lynch Thalraxal and we probably would not have condemned him for not doing so.
  • Aekenon and mAc Chaos were the main cause of Tipereth getting lynched, and one of them must be Dark Templar, so Tipereth must not have been one, making both of them Dark Templar.

If Tipereth was a Dark Templar, then under this scenario:
  • Aekenon and mAc Chaos were the main cause of Tipereth getting lynched, so if Tipereth was Dark Templar, the Dark Templar would not have lynched one of their own, and thus Aekenon and mAc Chaos would not be Dark Templar.
  • I am not a Dark Templar, since I would not have given the deciding vote to lynch a fellow Dark Templar.
  • Since mAc Chaos would not be a Dark Templar under this scenario, Lavarinth would be lying, and thus he would have to be a Dark Templar (or just a deceitful Protoss trying to mess us up...).
  • Thalraxal would not have been a Dark Templar, since Lavarinth would not have started the vote to lynch him otherwise, and because Thalraxal retaliated as well.
  • Taer would be the other Dark Templar, since there are no others left to discuss under this scenario.

As I currently have no reason to disbelieve Lavarinth, I am currently leaning more toward that the first of those scenarios is true, and that mAc Chaos and Aekenon are the remaining Dark Templar.


Also note that I am definitely an innocent Protoss.  It is extremely unlikely in either scenario, because in either case it would mean someone betraying their own side, for the reasons I've stated in them.
BTW, the narrowing down to these two scenarios was made possible by the double lynch, the way the votes went (including the order), the fact that we did get a Dark Templar with it, the number of people remaining, and Lavarinth's claims as to who he investigated and the results.  If even one of those did not happen, I probably would not have been able to narrow it down this much.

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:46 pm
by Lavarinth
Tipereth shouldn't of abstained. I as well believe Tipereth was innocent, but I found his method of communication suspicious. After Aek constantly supported mAc, it's the only reason I believed Aek was a Dark Templar. If he stayed quiet or didn't side with mAc, I wouldn't suspect him at all. As mentioned, I find mAc's random support towards Thalraxal as not a Dark Templar highly suspicious especially since it was after we had all concluded he was bound to be one. Why throw yourself into a fire to burn a mass murderer? To gain respect? No.. To help him continue his betrayal.

Shadow, you should be far more convinced than anyone as I tossed aside the idea of you being a Dark Templar immediatly when you were accused by, I believe it was, mAc and said we have more important matters at hand. This was my silent attempt to name you a Zealot, as I had previously already discovered.

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:53 pm
by ShadowFlare
Yeah, all of that fits with my first scenario listed.  After I finish reviewing the topic, I'll cast my vote.

As far as why Mucky was killed and not you (which hasn't been brought up yet), I'd say they wanted to keep Mucky from being able to prove that an Observer still existed last night, so they could possibly frame you.

I'll inform you of the status of my review as it happens.
  • Aekenon - Did not find anything on him indicating betraying mAc Chaos or Thalraxal.  Seemed to be cooperating with mAc Chaos.  Defended Thalraxal as being innocent.
  • mAc Chaos - Did not find anything on him indicating betraying Aekenon or Thalraxal.  Also defended Thalraxal.
  • Thalraxal - Did not find anything on him indicating betraying Aekenon or mAc Chaos.  He did not really seem to be cooperating with the others much, if at all.  He did mention that Lav accused a Dark Templar from the previous game (Thalraxal), and that mAc Chaos accused another Dark Templar from the previous game (ShadowFlare).  I don't know whether that could be considered any level of cooperation or not.

    He was mostly trying to defend himself.  For a moment, he tried to sacrifice himself, after Tipereth had said to go ahead and make it a tie so his death wouldn't be in vain.  However, later he switched back to defending himself, trying to get us to only lynch Tipereth.
I've finished my review (rereading all of their posts).  After considering this information, the information in my above post, and my deductions, I vote to lynch mAc Chaos.

I leave the rest in the hands of Lavarinth and Taer.  Unless Mac or Aek decides to betray the other (to end the game early), voting in bold for the other, we will have to wait until the next day to take care of Aekenon.

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 1:14 am
by Lavarinth
Vote to lynch mAc Chaos.

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:38 am
by Taeradun
lynch mAc Chaos

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:42 am
by Taeradun
wait i better not have just done something stupid

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:43 am
by Milldawg
Well, looks like Mac dies without even getting a chance to defend himself. PWNED

NIGHT FALLS!

ALIVE:
Shadowflare
Aekenon
Taeradun
Lavarinth

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 8:16 am
by Aekenon
Whoa, what's going on here?  Just two people rushing to a decision before anyone else even has a chance to post?  Yeesh.

This was apparently a bad night for me.  Not only was my entire theory about the DT's identities destroyed by Mucky's death, but it seems that now I'm suddenly suspected of being a Dark Templar.  This is just not true however, unless I missed a PM about it. :P

To be perfectly honest, by the time yesterday ended, I was sure that the suspects were Tipereth, Mucky, and you, ShadowFlare.  Tipereth, for reasons I've already explained.  Mucky, because of his double-sided nature (suspiciously quiet, and then suddenly LOOK AT ME, I'M A HIGH TEMPLAR).  And then ShadowFlare, because I suspected Mucky, and thought his post was an elaborate cover for her.

Obviously this was a mistake now.  With Mucky dead, his story is proven true, which subsequently means ShadowFlare is also innocent.  So now I look stupid... and guilty it seems, as I didn't join the fight against mAc.


EDIT: Augh!  What the heck is with this swift day?  Taeradun hadn't even posted when I started writing, and now the day is over!  Yeah, thanks for waiting.  Now all I can do is sit here and hope that mAc was really guilty.  It's GG otherwise.

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 9:28 am
by mAc Chaos
Hey, what?  I just woke up.  wtf.  lool, time for class.

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 9:50 am
by Milldawg
k so since I ended it so quickly, Aek and Mac can cast their meaningless votes retroactively if they want, and y'all can talk during the night :P

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 9:52 am
by ShadowFlare
lol, all meaningless, in my opinion.  I'm pretty sure I've already got it all figured out anyway.

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:01 am
by Aekenon
Yeah, it is meaningless.  After taking the time to mull over these new developments, I'm thinking the Dark Templar were probably Lavarinth and Taer.  So... yeah, gg all.

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:51 am
by ShadowFlare
Unless you are the Arbiter, that just is not possible, because otherwise I'm sure Milldawg would have just ended it.  However, Mucky revealed that no one was cloaked on the second night, so I do not think we have an Arbiter left.

At least either Thalraxal or mAc Chaos was a Dark Templar.  If either Lav or Taer were Dark Templar it means that they betrayed one of their own without a good reason.  Lav was the first to suggest Thalraxal and the first to suggest mAc Chaos (though I already suspected him and was typing my post before he mentioned that).  Taer was the one to finalize each of their lynchings.

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:04 am
by Lavarinth
Aekenon wrote: Yeah, it is meaningless.  After taking the time to mull over these new developments, I'm thinking the Dark Templar were probably Lavarinth and Taer.  So... yeah, gg all.
You're talking to an Observer and a Zealot. Do you really think we'll believe you?

Re: MAFIA VIIb - PROTOSS MAFIA ROUND 2

Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:17 am
by Milldawg
While ShadowFlare was repairing a Reaver, she was blown into pieces by scarabs that suddenly activated and crawled onto her.  When she was found, her body was splayed into chunks throughout the hangar.  It took six hours to clean up the mess.  ShadowFlare was cleverly murdered by the Dark Templar!

DAY BREAKS

ALIVE:
Taeradun
Aekenon
Lavarinth