Understanding North Korea

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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby Lavarinth » Tue Apr 16, 2013 9:04 am

As far as I'm aware, North Korea was already trying to piss off over 18 countries with threats of nuking any opposers of the supreme power without secret bomb blasts.
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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby Dread » Tue Apr 16, 2013 5:24 pm

North Korea was removed from the list of states sponsoring terrorism in an effort to assist in its denuclearization. It has since remained off the list even though it hasn't remained forthright in those efforts.

[source: http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2006/82736.htm] - State Sponsors of Terrorism Overview (2007)
[source: http://www.state.gov/j/ct/list/c14151.htm - Current List

Most acts involving North Korea tend to remain isolated to the region of the Korean peninsula. Their most recent claims to be orienting themselves to target the continental United States or its allies within the region have been aggressive and open. Having gone so far as to warn foreign citizens to leave South Korea. It doesn't add up.

I'm not sure if I've veered a little off-topic here. All the same looking for sense in their actions is somewhat senseless. The issue is in how to handle a rogue state once it has attained feasible nuclear weapons. Iraq was more a sense of potential and unaccounted for weapons of mass destruction that could become a risk to regional allies. North Korea has these weapons and is willing to use them. I hope that renewed and real pressure from Russia and China will make the most significant difference in all of this.
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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby mark_009_vn » Tue Apr 16, 2013 10:20 pm

Lavarinth wrote:As far as I'm aware, North Korea was already trying to piss off over 18 countries with threats of nuking any opposers of the supreme power without secret bomb blasts.


The threat of launching nukes to any country in the world is more or less an initiation to a Mexican standoff, since no one would be willing to attack the other in fear of retaliating nuke fire. This actually gives NK an immediate advantage unlike the Marathon bombing, which could "pissing off" countries but can't really do much else...

I'm not sure if I've veered a little off-topic here.


This is why I hate conspiracy theories. To be honest let just stop all these pointless discussion and wait for the truth to arrive...
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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby wibod » Wed Apr 17, 2013 9:30 am

Also it's thought that Best Korea's nukes are in line with the Little Boy and Fat Man. You can't put that shit on bottle rockets.
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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby Dread » Wed Apr 17, 2013 1:58 pm

mark_009_vn wrote:
I'm not sure if I've veered a little off-topic here.

This is why I hate conspiracy theories. To be honest let just stop all these pointless discussion and wait for the truth to arrive...

To be fair nothing I've stated here has been any sort of conspiracy theory. There was even sourced factual information. Also the discussion, albeit pointless to the actual outcome, is valuable in so far as it's discussion of real world and influential topics. It has value because we're helping shape discussion over influential, important, even meaningful topics between friends. Maybe someone even feels the need to discuss it as a method to cope. It's even possible that these discussions will at some point shape the real world application of some policies; that is whenever Lavarinth or Hercanic vie to become President of the United States or other elected officials.

wibod wrote:Also it's thought that Best Korea's nukes are in line with the Little Boy and Fat Man. You can't put that shit on bottle rockets.

If their focus is to build something, aim south, and make minimum distance. You wouldn't need something too sophisticated. Lots of bottle rockets. Lots. This isn't rocket science. Oh, wait...

You immediately made me think of this:
http://youtu.be/qy9WJrN22B0
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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby Hercanic » Wed Apr 17, 2013 4:47 pm

Who needs sophisticated missile guidance technology when you can just strap that shit to a low-tech plane? It'd take a suicidal pilot, but that's not exactly impossible to find...
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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby wibod » Wed Apr 17, 2013 5:47 pm

Hercanic wrote:Who needs sophisticated missile guidance technology when you can just strap that shit to a low-tech plane? It'd take a suicidal pilot, but that's not exactly impossible to find...


Because said plane is from the 60s and will be seen on the ground being prepped and then bombed on the strip or blown out of the sky before it's anywhere near the south.

Also it's not about sophisticated missile guidance tech, the Germans used rockets to attack England in WW2. It's about the fact that the missile designs the north is developing are shit tier due to lack of resources and people intelligent enough to design, prototype and build them. They've also isolated themselves such that the Chinese, Iranians and Syrians won't give them missile tech.

The north also has no real way to miniaturize the nukes they're making, meaning that they can't stick it on a missile and if they were to go the plane route they'd need a traditional bomber as the hodge podge of poorly maintained MiGs aren't going to be carrying shit.
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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby DrumsofWar » Wed Apr 17, 2013 7:26 pm

Thankfully, there hasn't been a link between North Korea and what's going on this week. An arrest was made in the ricin envelope mailings in Louisiana today so there may not be a link between the bombing and the mailings either.

As for North Korea Watch, China appears to be trying to tone everything down. They're scaling down their own confrontations with the Philippines and Japan over some stupid islands (and the valuable oil around them) while refusing to meet with North Korea until they shape up.

On the bright side, this may convince Kim Jong-Un in the long term to pursue a slow burn reform policy. He's doubtlessly seen how shitty his regime's military readiness compared to the MUCH improved response time of his neighbors to any shenanigans.

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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby Dread » Wed Apr 17, 2013 8:15 pm

DrumsofWar wrote:On the bright side, this may convince Kim Jong-Un in the long term to pursue a slow burn reform policy. He's doubtlessly seen how shitty his regime's military readiness compared to the MUCH improved response time of his neighbors to any shenanigans.

His focus might have been to act so bat shit insane for the right amount of time to entrench his power over armed forces in North Korea. To strengthen his rule and put to rest a remaining risk that his subordinates, who would in fact be in control of each branch of North Korea's armed forces, see him as a weak leader in the face of pressure from foreign nations. Might be, might back down once all of his generals are on the same page realizing the fallacious nature of war on that peninsula. I could see it. Maybe they're just insane. Who knows.

Hercanic wrote:Who needs sophisticated missile guidance technology when you can just strap that shit to a low-tech plane? It'd take a suicidal pilot, but that's not exactly impossible to find...

A ballistic missile poses a greater risk because of how difficult those can be to track and take down safely depending on which stage it is in its flight. Even in only considering their incredible speeds compared to traditional plane deliveries (example: LGM-30 Minuteman which travels at certain stages attaining speeds of as high as MACH23). Also, there has been no shortage of professional criticism from defense officials as to how efficacious the MIM-104 Patriot missile defenses are in practice. The risk of a conventional bomber being used is still real; but it wouldn't have stealth capabilities, would be easier to intercept, and might not result in accidental detonation depending on how it was armed for flight.

Granted, I used a highly advanced American ICBM as an example of fast missile deliveries; but given the regional distances of a North Korean launch to possible targets as close as South Korea; even at a marked lower speed the window of opportunity to intercept and eliminate becomes much smaller. Even the F-22 Raptor has a max cruise speed of Mach 1.82 and the F/A-18F Super Hornet (standard issue US Navy craft) has a max intercept speed of Mach 1.8. It's just not an incredibly desirable window to scramble and intercept something like a ballistic missile in such a small window of opportunity. Especially if you launch multiples even if only one is the legitimate threat.

I just did a rough calculation based on the Taepodong-2 missile that North Korea has been working on and it travels at sub-orbital speeds of about 8,000m/s which is in itself in excess of MACH23.

There's definitely magnitudes of difference in threat.

Something like... Nothing (i.e. the one I'm hoping for as cool heads prevail) > Planes > Ballistic Missiles.

DrumsofWar wrote:Thankfully, there hasn't been a link between North Korea and what's going on this week. An arrest was made in the ricin envelope mailings in Louisiana today so there may not be a link between the bombing and the mailings either.

Jeez. It isn't even a full moon. When did we miss the congregation of crazies convention.
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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby mark_009_vn » Wed Apr 17, 2013 11:49 pm

wibod wrote:Also it's thought that Best Korea's nukes are in line with the Little Boy and Fat Man. You can't put that shit on bottle rockets.


We'll see... We'll see, an SA-2 can still took down a B-52 even when it's guidance fins were improvised out of car wheels and mine shrapnel let alone a Fat Man with rockets. We'll see.. We'll see....

To be fair nothing I've stated here has been any sort of conspiracy theory. There was even sourced factual information. Also the discussion, albeit pointless to the actual outcome, is valuable in so far as it's discussion of real world and influential topics. It has value because we're helping shape discussion over influential, important, even meaningful topics between friends. Maybe someone even feels the need to discuss it as a method to cope. It's even possible that these discussions will at some point shape the real world application of some policies; that is whenever Lavarinth or Hercanic vie to become President of the United States or other elected officials.


My experiences tells me 9 out of 10 it's going to be bad... :P


Maybe they're just insane. Who knows.


You'll have to be a communist to know how a communist thinks. Long story sort, I think he's just really, really hot blooded.
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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby DrumsofWar » Wed Apr 17, 2013 11:52 pm

Dread wrote:Jeez. It isn't even a full moon. When did we miss the congregation of crazies convention.


Have you seen the Internet? Conspiracy theories multiply faster after any major news event faster than legitimate information can.

As for Mr. Kim, probably the biggest mystery is exactly how much leverage he has over his generals to pursue whatever his real agenda is. Some analysts seemed to suggest that the generals are more rational and that it might be better that they be in charge. I think it's a mistake to prefer the stability of an military oligarchy to the current state of affairs even if everyone's afraid of dealing with the political fallout of aiding 40 million+ North Koreans with weak infrastructure, little jobs, and famine-like conditions.

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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby mark_009_vn » Wed Apr 17, 2013 11:54 pm

DrumsofWar wrote:As for Mr. Kim, probably the biggest mystery is exactly how much leverage he has over his generals to pursue whatever his real agenda is. Some analysts seemed to suggest that the generals are more rational and that it might be better that they be in charge. I think it's a mistake to prefer the stability of an military oligarchy to the current state of affairs even if everyone's afraid of dealing with the political fallout of aiding 40 million+ North Koreans with weak infrastructure, little jobs, and famine-like conditions.


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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby wibod » Thu Apr 18, 2013 11:55 am

mark_009_vn wrote:
wibod wrote:Also it's thought that Best Korea's nukes are in line with the Little Boy and Fat Man. You can't put that shit on bottle rockets.


We'll see... We'll see, an SA-2 can still took down a B-52 even when it's guidance fins were improvised out of car wheels and mine shrapnel let alone a Fat Man with rockets. We'll see.. We'll see....


I hope you have a citation for that SA-2 story!

Not to mention the Taepodong2 has been tested once and it failed 35-40 seconds after launch. Best korea can't miniaturize their nukes, and even if they could they don't have a rocket that can deliver them. This is all moot anyways since kim and his gaggle of retards have no intention of launching a nuke.
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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby IskatuMesk » Thu Apr 18, 2013 2:59 pm

Kim may just decide to yolo that swag and 420 some gringos because, hey, the world's gotta end some day. He's blazing it one way or another. I'd probably be more worried of all their artillery than the nukes, though.

As for conspiracy theories, the one I'm sticking with is that Boston was an inside job because America. They are, of course, just like doctors, only an extension of the Aliens that God sent to punish us before Jesus (or planet X) returns to make the world right.

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Re: Understanding North Korea

Postby Hercanic » Thu Apr 18, 2013 4:53 pm

wibod wrote:Because said plane is from the 60s and will be seen on the ground being prepped and then bombed on the strip or blown out of the sky before it's anywhere near the south.

Fog. Hanger. Underground tunnels.

Man defects and escapes with his family in a hijacked plane. Don't worry, he's totally legit. You wouldn't shoot down a plane with women and children aboard, would you?

First strike. Oh look, now they're Overlord dropping. Which planes are carrying nukes?

Kamikaze! Only it'd be a Korean word, because fuck the Japanese. Amirite NK?

Hell, they can shoot nukes from artillery.
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